Australian Masters' Round 1 Predictions

Dan Slob: The pairings for the first round of the Australian Masters' has been revealed. Me and Steve couldn't resist giving our inexpert and un-asked for opinions on the match-ups!

Dan Slob: This is a tricky one to call. On the one hand something a cavalry army absolutely hates is a higher Fight value shield wall, especially one with a load of fairly high strength shooting. That being said, the Isengard list is going to rely on its characters (Saruman in particular) for a lot of its utility, and Angmar is a character assassination specialist. That means that Saruman is going to be very constrained in what he can do as he has to remain safe from Gully at all times. The scenario will dictate a lot of this match, if it is one where Isengard can hole-up then I think they’ll take it. If not then Angmar should come out better.

Steve: With Saruman as a spellcaster, I feel he has his work cut out for him in this matchup. Not only is he against a leader with a healthy supply of will, he's also against a heck of a magic resistant beast in Gulavhar. That being said, he could help drain the Witch King's will supply and make him a little more hesitant on combat, and the good amount of range from Isengard could make quick work of the Terror of Arnor. Speed is certainly on Angmar's side here being an almost entirely mounted force - objective grabbing is going to be a key play for this force along with some pretty terrifying charging ability if priority and heroics fall favourably. Angmar gets my vote here.

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Dan Slob: Oh dear, that poor, poor elephant. He is going to get Transfixed so hard he won’t know what day it is. Now, he is Resistant to Magic thanks to Sigils of Defence but there are 9 free Channelled Transfixes pointing his way. Ouch. As with any Cav on Cav match, priority will be big, but considering the Black Riders have 19 Might to spend on Heroic Moves while the GAotS has only 6 it does feel a bit one sided. Even if fully half of those get cancelled by the War Leader the Riders still have the advantage. Not only that but the troops are likely to be only Courage 1 anyway so even if they did win the chances of them getting meaningful charges will be small. Overall I think the Riders are a hard counter to the Elephant which makes me sad :(

Steve: A lot of this matchup for me boils down to whether the Witch King can get in close to the Mumak to whip out the Morgul Blade and take down a very large piece of the Southern army. On the other hand any wraiths that unfortunately get trampled have a good chance of perishing very quickly as well. Whilst the Haradrim bows are unlikely to matter much to the riders, they'll certainly be effective at unhorsing them and swinging this in the South's favour. With a few more tricks up the lists sleeve however the Black Riders may edge out a win. I love a high risk, high reward so I'm going with The Black Riders on this one.

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Dan Slob: The battle of the hordes! Sadly for Goblin Town they are facing a force that they only outnumber by 3 models, and who in general has higher Fight and Strength. Considering the only thing that Goblin Town really has going for it is its numbers I think they could be in a whole bunch of trouble here. 

Steve: A couple of lists here with some of the highest model counts in the tournament. The Uruk's certainly have the Goblins out-fought, but they lack the latter's support with no spears to speak of. Along with the fighting ability, Ugluk's Scouts also have a very high degree of manoeuvrability over the Goblins. With similar numbers I feel it's weighted in their favour, but the beasts are going to be something to look out for and be wary of some flanking shenanigans. Ugluk's Scouts are my pick here.

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Dan Slob: This is another match that is going to depend quite heavily on the scenario (and the board layout). If the Dwarves can wall off part of the board and stay there then the Corsairs are going to be in trouble. However if the Corsairs are allowed to do what they do best (wrap and trap) then the shoe is on the other foot. That being said, I really don’t know how the Corsairs will deal with Dain, who could just smash through rank after rank of pirates. The sheer weight of throwing weapons could also be big as even the armour of the Dwarves will eventually succumb to huge amounts of dice. Overall this is a tough one and I don’t know that I can call it either way.

Steve: A tough matchup to decide from here. Whilst not very numerous, the Dwarves are tough and will stick around. Their numbers and speed will make objective play difficult however. The low defence of the Corsairs is one of their issues however; there may not be many crossbows in the Iron Hills force, but add in the ballista and the Dwarves take the advantage there. The Hasharin has a good chance at taking out some key models, but the Corsairs really need to rely on getting stuck in and overwhelming as soon as they can to tie the enemy up.

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Dan Slob: It’s hard not to just call this one for Moria and carry on. I just don’t know how Mordor will deal with the Balrog. They have a bunch of great heroes but sadly the Balrog is fairly unworried by anything they can bring to the table. Added to this, the LL essentially turns Goblins into Orcs so they don’t even have the Fight advantage. It’s hard to see what Mordor can do here which is a real shame as I love the list.

Steve: Another matchup with fairly large model counts on either side, but interestingly both packing in some heavy hitters. The Balrog will always be a scary presence to go up against and none of the Mordor force can really go up against it to defeat it. They'll have to play around it quite carefully and work on using their numbers (and slightly superior fighting power) to work through the Goblins and add in a bit of hero trickery from the magic users and getting Shelob on a rampage through the ranks.

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Dan Slob: This is an interesting one. The Riders have all the tools to deal with the scariest part of this list (Bolg) but I really don’t know how they deal with the troops. Kiting is not really a great option as there is so much scary shooting in the Legion list. They won’t have to worry about getting charged much as the Orc’s will have terrible courage, but because of that shooting threat I’m not sure it’s that great of an advantage here. Overall I don’t know enough of the nuances of the Riders to call it one way or the other but my gut says the Legion will take this one.

Steve: The sheer amount of magical power in The Black Riders means they're at an advantage when it comes to the enemy heroes. Unless they can scare everything away they're going to have a real problem getting bogged down by the Orcs. Given that the Legion is fielding Wargs as well means that the Riders don't have the advantage when it comes to objective grabbing either - add the bows in as well and some of those riders are definitely being unhorsed throughout the game! I feel the sheer weight of numbers backed up with elite Gundabad Orcs will grab the win in this one.

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Dan Slob: Well this is by far the match I want to watch the most. There will only be 24 models on the table but it will have by far the most going on! At first it was hard to see what the Isengard list can do as all of the Good models are a big threat to its centrepiece (the Dragon), but then my eyes strayed downwards to the bottom of the list. Grima. Oh my God, Grima! He is going to be worth his weight in gold in this match. A single 35 point model that almost single-handedly will close the enormous Might gap between these forces. Added to this, the fact that almost half the Isengard list can Fly means it will run rings around the foot slogging Good side (hilariously Grima will be the fastest model on their side). Though it absolutely breaks my heart I think all the advantages lie with Isengard here and it is theirs to lose.

Steve: Two of the lists I had no idea behind their design but without a doubt am eager to see slog it out. Grima is going to be the stand out here I think, all the might granted by the captains will be drained fairly quickly. I think the Crebain are going to be critical if it comes down to an objective based game as either one of these forces can be reduced to breaking very quickly. In a straight on fight however the Elves are going to take it. This is honestly a toss up in my opinion and is highly dependent on the scenario - my gut is telling me Isengard here though so I'm sticking with it. Also I want to see Mirkwood burn.

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Dan Slob: This could be tricky for the Legion. The Ghosts have high Defence so aren’t worried about their shooting too much, they will be wounding pretty much all the troops on 3s and even Bolg on 5s, and they have Aragorn/the King to deal with the big-bads. They have definitely got a dice disadvantage as they are quite heavily outnumbered but they have all the tools they need to win this one.

Steve: The ghosts are going to be tough nuts to crack here - they always are.  Sometimes Aragorn can be deceitful and the dice don't always go his way, Anduril is a great plus to this and I think his fre might every round is unfortunately going to get pumped in to Striking each round to counter the many heroes he will likely face. I do worry about the Legion's bows picking off Aragorn and Legolas if they get caught in the open but backed up by the King of the Dead I think this is the good side's game to win.

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