That’s it! So if you feel like your favourite cavalry doesn’t fare as well in the numbers as you thought they would, it’s most likely because they doesn’t excel at doing one of those two things. And, on the subject of caveats:
- We will
not be looking at ‘multi kill’ scenarios for this comparison – in the event of a kill by impact hits / throwing spear, it is assumed that the cavalry model stops and does not continue to charge the spear support. Note that this also helps the model’s survivability - your enemy can’t kill you if they’re dead!
- We will
not be looking at bows for this – and this is a big one. Be forewarned,
skirmish cavalry who mix archery with charges will not be fairly represented by the numbers. The choice of when to skirmish and when to engage will change game by game, turn by turn, player by player. Archery in SBG is a complex, fickle beast, and this isn’t an analysis of archery, so as far as the stats are concerned we’ll be looking at melee charges only.
- We will
not be looking at special rules, unless they are
always active in this scenario, and
directly help the cavalry model in this scenario. For example, we’re looking at charging, so Riders of Rohan will get their +1S bonus, because they always have it when charging. But they will not get the +1F buff from being within 12” of Theoden, which is not always active. We will look at area of effect buffs in a separate table, and discuss them in the results. But because they require skill to use well, we’ll leave them out of the main comparison, as they’re not the ‘default’ state of the model.
- Models equipped with throwing weapons have been included as a separate profile, as they significantly change a model’s offensive output per point, and slightly change their defensive ability too.
- We will
not be using special strikes (with one exception), but may follow up with these in a future article.
- Heroes with Might points make things messy and complicated, so we’ll be
totally ignoring Heroes (yes, this includes Rangers of the North). If you want to know how Might and Fate points change things, you’d have to read a far more qualified blog than this one!
- For discussion, roles have been simplified to Light (L), Medium (M), Heavy (H) and Skirmish (S).
- Note that Warg Marauders show a 0% chance to die, because they cannot be taken off the table in one turn in this scenario. It does not mean they are invincible! This is just a quirk of the model that we are using to calculate our stats.
- For mounts that have the potential to stick around after the rider dies, this is a powerful effect, but it will not be reflected in the numbers, which represent the odds of the whole cavalry model surviving. It will however, be factored in to our discussion below.
There's some good results in this blog, Mr Frodo - and they're worth fighting for!
Almost there, I promise!
We have ordered our results by their
Overall Point Value (OPV). This is calculated by ‘weighting’ a model’s killing power and survivability roughly evenly, and dividing their product by the model’s points value. It’s a slightly crude method, and assumes that killing power and survivability are equally important. But it gives us some indication of the model’s value per point based on
both its offensive and defensive capability per point so that we can begin our discussion. It is also an arbitrary, non-linear number - doubling this number does not mean a model is twice as efficient - and it also doesn’t mean the top of the list is automatically better!
We've included a Kill / Live / Die chance bar graph, which is a far more concrete number for beginning our discussion. The green bar represents the chance of the cavalry model killing its target, and the red is the chance that it will die in the process. The white space indicates the chance that neither model will be killed, and both will survive to fight another round!
A final disclaimer. The statistics apply only to the models
raw combat performance on the charge - not its overall performance during a game, or performance with buffs or special effects. For that, we’ve gone into more detail on the cavalry we think is best in our discussion below, where we look at the big picture a lot more. We'll weigh in on other factors such as buffs, archery, and the model’s place within an army list.
We have included a few buffed models - these are ones that we feel the buffs are basically non optional on, either because the buffing model is mandatory (Khandish Kings must be taken in order to bring Horsemen and Chariots), or because you will almost always see the buffing model present in that army list (Imrahil, Theoden, Thranduil etc.) We may include some more in the future, so please let us know your suggestions!
OK, enough rambling. Without further ado, here is our analysis. Buffed models can be found in a separate table below the first. Full data can be found
here. Bear in mind that any characteristics listed have their modifiers included (e.g. Rider of Rohan's increased strength).
Results
Discussion
Now, where to begin?
There are quite a few surprises! I think it’s best to go through each profile and take a little look at what the analysis shows us. We’ll be talking a lot about chance to kill/die on charge (%Kill / %Die), Kill Power per Point (KP/P), and Overall Point Value (OPV).
Note that even though we’ll be giving letter grades, there is no such thing as bad cavalry. The scores are there to make a meaningful comparison between models, but every model has its place in an army list. The letter grades are to do with a model’s efficiency, not its overall performance.
A quick note on mount types, so I don’t have to repeat it: Horses and Armoured Horses behave fairly similarly, but impacts a models’ survivability, especially against missile fire. Any Warg riding models have the potential to leave a Warg behind after dying, which can be very important, especially for objective play.
Let’s dive in! I’ll be going through the profiles in the order they appear in the army books.
Knight of Minas Tirith
A basic knight at 14pts with a lance is no joke. Slightly killy, slightly squishy due to their fight value, but very very solid. However, bring in Boromir and his banner, and it’s a different story altogether – these things become lethal, bringing a frankly ridiculous KP/P. Of course, Boromir costs a pretty penny himself, but what a difference he makes!
Drawn Combat score: A, just try to keep them around Boromir!
Citadel Guard
Not much to say here. The horse on their profile feels like a token inclusion, and despite some arguments for Fight 5 when buffed by Boromir, there’s little reason to take them. The buff does make them strong, but not nearly as strong as a Knight of Minas Tirith, which is cheaper, stronger, and harder to kill. Mounted longbows, however, are quite nice, as is Bodyguard.
Drawn Combat score: C
Knight of Dol Amroth
There’s no doubt that these guys are expensive at 20pts a go. They are perhaps the definitive Good heavy cavalry, with a strong defense and fight value. With the optional buffs from Imrahil (banner effect and +1F), Forlong (reroll 1s to wound) and Angbor (fearless), they become absolute powerhouses, pushing their KP/P to very healthy levels.
The 12” banner from Imrahil means you can almost count this as their default state for the early game - the 3” fight buff is much harder to use, but gives you some F5 which can be invaluable. A must have in any Fiefdoms list, and also a decent allied choice.
Drawn Combat score: A- , as long as they’re buffed.
Rider of the Dead
They’re terrifying if you lose the duel roll against them… but the numbers show us just what an Achilles’ heel a low fight value is. Harbinger of evil makes a tiny difference. However, even with an average 96% chance of a successful wound roll against debuffed courage (yikes!) they’re still under 50%Kill overall. Thanks to their huge cost, this gives shockingly bad KP/P. However, they’re impossible to kill (and so are their horses), so killing things really isn’t their job. They have Terror, so they can be thrown onto objectives with relative safety, particularly if Harbinger is up.
However - you’ll note that despite their terrible scoring here, you’ll almost always want to take one or two in a ghost list, just for their mobility and resilience. As we’ll mention again and again, it’s not all about the numbers.
Drawn Combat score: C-
Rider of Rohan
Our first case of the ‘bow tax’ damaging a model’s efficiency. They are definitely on the squishy side, but throwing spears and Theoden’s buff really help out, rocketing their OPV up towards the top of the table. Throwing spears really help their kill power per point, and bump their chance to %Kill by a full 8%, so I’d almost always take them. And of course, it goes without saying that they really rely on Theoden to reach their potential - a Rider receiving the benefits from both the fight and strength buff beats out a Goat Rider in terms of OPV. If we remember that they come with a bow as standard, and have Expert Rider, you’ve got a real swiss army knife of a cavalry model here - even more so if they take axes for a potential S5 on the charge.
Drawn Combat Score: B- (without spears), B (with spears)
Rohan Royal Guard
Take a Rider of Rohan, remove the bow, increase the fight value, and increase their defense. Need I say more? These are a great heavy counterpart to the riders. As is to be expected, they fare very well in the numbers, gaining charge efficiency to make up for the lack of a bow - with their Theoden buff, they have the same KP/P as a buffed KoDA. They trade some flexibility for a real solid punch - and when equipped with a spear they take the #2 spot for OPV.
When buffed by Theoden, something really interesting happens. Normally their KP/P is higher with a spear, but when buffed, it actually becomes lower. This is because they're so dangerous at F5 that the spear becomes almost redundant! However, it still improves their OPV as it adds to their survivability.
All in all - an exemplary heavy cavalry unit.
Drawn Combat score: A
Rohan Outrider
We’re really seeing the archery penalty in full effect here. They have that wonderful 3+ shoot value, making them great skirmish cavalry, but boy do they pay for it - in our scenario they’re more likely to die than to score a kill. They keep the Ride for Ruin strength buff, but lose Theoden’s fight bonus, making them far more likely to die on the charge, especially if you’re up against fight 4. Best played as ranged cavalry, with charging as a last resort. There is a strong argument to take a Rider of Rohan instead, who gain a lot for losing a point of shoot value.
Drawn Combat score: C+
Son of Eorl
Point for point, Sons of Eorl come out very similar to Royal Guard, but with a bit more offensive potential - if they charge and piercing strike, they are a whopping S6. Play them alongside Eorl the young and they turn into combat monsters, with 62%Kill. Otherwise, and assuming Theoden is in your list, Royal Guard are the more efficient choice, and are less reliant on their hero.
Drawn Combat score: A- with Eorl the Young - otherwise take Royal Guard instead.
Rivendell Knight
Very similar to knights of Dol Amroth, but with additional excellent shooting, with no bow cap if you take Elrond. They gain a point of fight, making them more resilient and slightly more dangerous (as well as allowing them to challenge heroes), but cost 2pts more, which impacts their KP/P. They do not have the ability to become supercharged like KoDA (their max %Kill tops out at 53% vs KoDA’s 65%), but they also do not have to rely on AoE buffs. Lethal, self-sufficient heavy cavalry, which are rightfully feared by all warriors of lower fight value, and many Heroes too - though their unarmoured horses mean a couple may be dismounted before they arrive.
Drawn Combat score: A- (I expect this one to be controversial! Do I think they are the best cavalry in the game? No. But they are an excellent cavalry inside one of the game’s most competitive factions.)
Galadhrim Knight
Basically Rivendell Knights without lances. Strictly worse, but with a 3pt discount and Fleetfoot as a consolation prize. Worse KP/P and OPV, and no bows to show for it. You can add a bow, but this makes them only 1pt less than Riv Knights. At least they have armoured horses, but I think I’d rather have the lance.
Drawn Combat score: C
Orc Tracker
The candle that burns twice as bright burns half as long - Orc trackers have great kill power per point, and catastrophic survivability. They are easier to kill than their Warg Rider counterparts, so it’s important to capitalise on their shoot value. Be very careful who you charge them into, because their opponent is likely to have the upper hand in combat, with 41%Die in this scenario. Cheap, accurate bows have their place, but I think I would rather pay the extra point for the added KP/P and survivability of Warg Riders with Spears.
Drawn Combat score: B-
Warg Rider (Including Angmar Warg Rider)
Slightly more durable than Trackers, but with a full 36% chance to die when charging. Again, they are cheap, but must be used carefully - they need to select single combats wherever they can. Throwing spears are an obvious purchase here, bumping their %Kill by over 5%, and making their KP/P really quite good. Bows are harder to justify, due to the presence of Orc Trackers - but versatility is never a bad thing. And with the amount of Heroes to choose from, you can tweak their performance to your heart's content.
It’s noteworthy that Angmar Riders have the potential to cause terror within 3” of a spirit model (which you should be taking in an Angmar list). It won’t be active all the time, but in a big scrap it will increase their survivability, and might allow them to make some extra charges.
All in all - punchy, cheap and fragile.
Drawn Combat score: B- (without spears), A- (with spears)
Morgul Knight
The Evil counterpart to Dol Amroth and Rivendell Knights. Incredibly solid all around, with Terror as the cherry on top. Nothing bad to say here.
Drawn Combat score: A
Dunlending Horseman
Very similar to Warg riders, but without the option for throwing spears (and the horse has no chance of staying around to fight). They’re cheap, hit reasonably hard, and kill horses like nobody’s business, which can be handy for dismounting heroes or in certain scenarios. Axes can situationally help them tackle high defense, too - S5 cavalry is a scary prospect.
Drawn Combat score: B
Warg Marauder
The party bus is a really interesting one. The fight value is poor, and the KP/P leaves a bit to be desired considering you get 4 attacks (at first). It’s very hard to put a price tag on the ability to shoot with 2 bows even while in combat. These are a flexible unit, which score highly on defense in this scenario, with 0% chance of being taken off the table in one turn by 2 infantry warriors. However, in subsequent rounds of combat, the Marauder will lose both offensive and defensive potential. They also cause Terror, helping them out on defense and to get their charges off. Getting the most out of the Marauder is very tricky, relying on them using their janky bag of tricks - but they’re a suitably quirky cavalry option for a monster-packed Moria list.
One extra point is that this model can beeline to an objective and dismount 3 goblins for ridiculous area control - a situational but very powerful tactic.
Drawn Combat score: B-
Easterling Kataphrakt
Oh dear. All the hitting power of a Galadhrim knight, with none of the fight value. This is the lowest scoring non-skirmish model there is. Defense 6 is something, but don’t expect them to have the staying power of a Rider of the Dead. The Gleaming Horde helps against archery, but does nothing for them in melee. I have separated out the profile for Black Dragon Kataphrakts, because it tells a different story - it turns them into fairly solid (if unremarkable) defensive cavalry. There is certainly room for them in any Easterling list, not least because they give easy access to a War Drum - but don’t rely on them to kill anything. Best used for objective grabbing and area control.
Drawn Combat score: D, or C+ with Black Dragon upgrade which you should always take.
Khandish Horseman
Evil Riders of Rohan, that trade strength on the charge for an extra point of fight value. With their 2 handed axes, they can be surprisingly prickly when they want to be (2 handed piercing strike for strength 4, +1 to wound), although they will drop like flies if used carelessly. Their bows come built in, and best of all, do not contribute to the army’s bow limit, making an all-mounted, all-bow Khand list possible. A banner reroll from a Khandish King is easy to maintain due to its 6” radius, and pushes the Horsemen’s kill power per point to very healthy levels - and a Khand list is very likely to include at least one king. These are great skirmish cavalry despite their fragility.
Drawn Combat score: B+
Khandish Charioteer
It’s difficult to include Charioteers in this list as they play so differently to normal cavalry due to their movement, base size and impact hits. But there would be riots in the streets if I didn’t, so here we are. If we’re looking at them on the same single-target scenario as the other cavalry, their kill chance is excellent - almost 80% when piercing striking and buffed by a nearby King. And I have included piercing strike on this model and no other for a good reason - it is much less risky on a Chariot due to its 5+ ‘to hit’ roll, meaning you’ll be doing it often. They are also shockingly durable, though still susceptible to archery and magic.
However, the numbers do not show a couple of things. The first is the potential for a bloody kill streak, especially against lower defense models - but the second is just how easy these are to trap and kill due to their large base size. Their survivability and offensive output relies on them charging frequently and not being swamped. A tricky unit to use, but devastating if used correctly.
Drawn Combat score: A
Haradrim Raider
As was expected, great KP/P and terrible survivability. The low killing power of fight 3 is offset a little by the poison, and a lot by the war spear (which you should always take), giving a 40%Kill, which is terrifying for a 12pt model. But with 36%Die, don’t be surprised to see them crumble when taking on F4 or higher. They can purchase a 1pt poisoned bow too, and with a 50% bow limit, they make a very prickly skirmish force, especially if you buff them with Suladan and the Betrayer.
Drawn Combat score: B-
Serpent Rider
Absolutely fantastic. They lose the bows from Harad Raiders but keep all their other strengths - they also get F4! This overcomes the Harad Raiders’ main weakness, decreasing their %Die to 29%, and increasing their %Kill to a ludicrous 51% - for a 13pt model! If you don’t plan on skirmishing, I’d call these a strictly better choice. They are terrifying.
When benefitting from Suladan's banner effect and the Betrayer's wound rerolls, they bring the highest KP/P of any model we've looked at. However, this is somewhat to be expected, as at that point you're really tailoring your army list (and expending a will point) to give this guys absurd killing power.
Drawn Combat score: A
Mahud Raider
Wow wow wow. When it comes to cavalry, the armies from the South are spoilt for choice. Excluding buffed units, this is the most efficient cavalry in the game - at least in our scenario. The S4 impact hit, combined with their lance, makes them absolutely lethal - they’re effectively smaller, more cost-effective chariots. With 61%Kill, I’d take as many of these as possible. Blowpipes for a point are nice too, but they don’t need them to do their jobs very, very well.
Drawn Combat score: A+
Iron Hills Goat Rider
Very solid. They have an 33% chance to automatically knock down their opponent, which helps their survivability should they lose the duel roll (but note that in our scenario, the spear support can still strike the rider.) Good fight, good strength, and the war spear which seems much better than the optional mattock. They’re slightly squishier than their fellow warriors, but 16%Die is still extremely good. Their only real downside is their 8”, which can really diminish their threat bubble, especially against infantry with an 8” move.
Drawn Combat score: A-
Mirkwood Cavalry
Very similar to Galadhrim Knights, along with the same low punching power (but with no armoured horse). However, they’re significantly cheaper, and have the option of being buffed by Thranduil (6” banner, and 3” +1 to wound) for a huge boost to their KP/P - their %kill shoots from 40% to 63%. If you are taking more than a few Mirkwood Cavalry, it should be to capitalise on this huge boost to their efficiency - it makes them absolutely lethal.
Drawn Combat score: B
Hunter Orc
The numbers are not kind to the Hunter orc. This because of their huge tax for having a 4+ shoot value (including the army bonus) and, more importantly, Fell Sight. Without these, they would just be very inefficient Warg Riders. Getting their points' worth depends entirely on making charges with Fell Sight that you wouldn’t otherwise be capable of, and ideally preying on isolated models without spear supports - which is why they fare so badly in our spear supported scenario. You probably also want to take bows to get your money back for the shoot value tax. You have the option of taking a 2 handed pick, but with a fight value of 3, you’ll be getting to know that 36%Die very well indeed.
Add that to the fact that Hunter Orcs get 2 attacks when on foot, and it seems like Wargs should be taken mostly for mobility and that crucial Fell Sight.
Drawn Combat score: C+
Summary
As expected, the numbers have been kinder to some cavalry units than others. But cavalry is always good. Even the ‘worst’ cavalry in the game should sometimes be taken in a list, just for the diversity they bring.
It's very plain to see that archery imposes a big points tax on models. Rivendell knights, though lethal on the charge, are more expensive than other similarly lethal models, because they are paying for some very effective shooting on top of their normal cost. Similarly, models built for versatility tend to be a little less efficient in raw damage stats.
There is a bias towards high-cost, high-firepower cavalry shown in this article, but that is not all you should consider when building your list. Every expensive cavalry model you take might remove 2 foot troops from the field, reducing your army’s footprint. This means less traps, less flanks, and less objective potential. Hopefully some of the data here can help you to find the right balance for your army.
It’s also absolutely worth mentioning that we’ve only looked at cavalry on the charge - but cavalry won’t always be charging. Our database of destruction is only half the story, and if you don’t put your cavalry in positions where they can reliably get the upper hand, then they’re just expensive infantry on big bases. These means playing them cleverly, surrounding them with might points, and keeping your fingers crossed for those roll offs.
Finally, if there’s one thing I’ve taken away from this analysis, it’s the importance of fight value. There can be no better example than the humble Knight of Minas Tirith. At fight 3, he’s good, not great. But bump him to 4, and he brings the highest efficiency of any cavalry in the game. I knew fight value was a big deal - but it’s a really, really big deal.
So that’s it! Well done on making it to the end of this hefty dive into the numbers behind the models. See
here for the full spreadsheet including all stats used, and feel free to get in touch to point out anything I missed, or to question my working - and keep your eyes peeled for the Infantry analysis which is coming next.
I didn’t expect this to turn into a research paper - but that’s exactly what it became. Big thanks to the community for their invaluable input, and also to Dan Slb, Dan Sellen, Dave and Colm of the Drawn Combat team for their editorial input (and their maths lessons!)
